The short answer
To judge a win-back campaign honestly, define a return before you send, subtract messaging and offer costs, and compare with a holdout group that got no message. Attributed revenue is a signal, not proof of extra profit.
Key takeaways
- Decide what counts as a return before the first message.
- Subtract message and offer costs from attributed revenue.
- A holdout group shows what would have happened anyway.
Define a return first
Set the qualifying event and attribution window before sending. A reply is different from an attended appointment or a paid bill. Count each customer consistently and avoid double-counting a bill.
Include the costs
Subtract messaging charges and redeemed offer costs from the attributed revenue estimate. If you are evaluating profit, include the cost of delivering the underlying product or service as well.
Ask what would have happened anyway
Some recipients would have returned without a message. Where practical, compare with a randomly selected eligible holdout group. Explain limitations and avoid treating all attributed revenue as additional profit.
Put it to work.
See who’s due for this one in your own Reten.
Written by the Reten editorial team. General guidance, not legal advice: check consent and messaging rules for your business before you send.