The short answer
Win-back rate is the share of customers who had gone quiet and then came back within a set window. Take everyone who had gone quiet, count how many visited again within the window (say 30 days), divide, and multiply by 100. To see what your messages added, compare with a few quiet customers you didn’t message.
Key takeaways
- Decide what “gone quiet” means for your business before you count.
- Count people who came back, not bills.
- Leave a few quiet customers unmessaged: the gap between the two groups is what your messages did.
- 01The formula
- 02A worked example
- 03Decide what “gone quiet” means first
- 04Count people, not bills
- 05Keep a group you don’t message
- 06Read it over time
The formula
Start with the customers who had gone quiet on the first day of the period. Count how many of them visited again within your window, say 30 days. Divide by the number who had gone quiet. Multiply by 100.
A worked example
Say 200 regulars had gone quiet on 1 October. You messaged 180 of them and left 20 alone. By 31 October, 36 of the 180 had come back: 36 divided by 180 is 0.2, so your win-back rate is 20 in every 100. Of the 20 you left alone, 2 came back anyway: 10 in every 100. Your messages added about 10 points. These are example numbers. Use your own.
Decide what “gone quiet” means first
A café regular who came every week and hasn’t been in for a month has gone quiet. A salon client who comes every six weeks hasn’t. Judge each person by their own usual gap between visits, and write the rule down before you count, so you don’t move the line to make the number look better.
Count people, not bills
Someone who came back three times counts once. To know who is who, you need a phone number on each bill. Without it, every visit looks like a new person.
Keep a group you don’t message
Some people come back anyway: payday, a festival, a friend’s birthday. Each time you send, leave a few quiet customers out, picked at random. The difference between the two groups is what your messages did. Small groups jump around, so look at it over a few months before you trust it. Then take off what the messages and any offer cost.
Read it over time
One month tells you little. Use the same window every month, and read it next to your repeat customer rate: one shows whether people stay, the other whether the ones who drifted come back.
Put it to work.
See who’s due for this one in your own Reten.
Written by the Reten editorial team. General guidance, not legal advice: check consent and messaging rules for your business before you send.