The short answer
A regular has probably stopped coming when the days since their last visit run well past their own usual gap between visits. Work out each person’s usual gap from their bills, add some room for normal ups and downs, and treat anyone past that point as fading. Miss about two usual visits and they are likely lost.
Key takeaways
- Judge each customer by their own usual gap, not one cut-off for everyone.
- Past their usual gap means fading: that is the time for one message. About two missed visits means likely lost.
- Missing phone numbers, holidays and seasons can make someone look gone when they aren’t.
- 01Why one cut-off for everyone doesn’t work
- 02Step 1: work out each person’s usual gap
- 03Step 2: add room for normal ups and downs
- 04Step 3: three plain stages
- 05Check what the records miss
- 06Keep the reason visible
Why one cut-off for everyone doesn’t work
Many shops use one rule, such as no visit in 90 days. But a daily café regular who hasn’t come in for three weeks has clearly changed, while a salon client who comes every six weeks hasn’t. One cut-off flags the salon client too early and the café regular far too late.
Step 1: work out each person’s usual gap
From your bills, list each customer’s visit dates. Count the days between one visit and the next, and take the average. Someone who came on the 1st, 5th, 8th and 12th has a usual gap of about 4 days. You need a few visits before this means anything, so leave customers with only one or two bills out of it.
Step 2: add room for normal ups and downs
Nobody comes back on the exact day. Some gaps are short, some long, so give each person a buffer. The more their gaps jump around, the bigger the buffer. A study in the Boston Hospitality Review (Webb, Legg and Mancini, 2021) does this with each customer’s average gap and how much it varies, and lets the business choose how cautious to be. Their usual gap plus that buffer is the date you would expect them back by.
Step 3: three plain stages
Before the expected date, the customer is active: leave them alone. Past it, they are fading: this is the time for one short, useful message, to customers who opted in. Once they have missed about two usual visits, they are likely lost, which is how the same study treats it. Example: a café regular who comes about every 4 days is fading after about a week and likely lost after about two weeks. A salon client on a 6-week rhythm is fading after about 7 weeks. These are example numbers. Use your own bills.
Check what the records miss
A bill without a phone number makes a regular look like a stranger. A new number makes one person look like two. Holidays, exams, the monsoon and festivals change everyone’s rhythm at once. Before you message anyone, glance at the list and remove people you know are away.
Keep the reason visible
Next to each flagged name, show the reason, for example usual gap 4 days, last visit 9 days ago. The owner can then decide in seconds whether a message makes sense. Afterwards, count who came back within a window you set before sending, not who replied.
Sources
Put it to work.
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Written by the Reten editorial team. General guidance, not legal advice: check consent and messaging rules for your business before you send.